去美元化下的資產配置

Abstract

本研究探討金融制裁制度化與地緣政治風險升高背景下，全球央行外匯儲備配置的結構性轉變。隨著美元資產可凍結性上升及美國財政風險累積，部分國家逐步調降美元部位，轉向黃金等不具對手方風險的去信任化資產。本文結合金融制裁與儲備配置相關文獻，建立以供需剩餘為核心的估算模型，推估中國 2010–2024 年潛在官方黃金儲備，並比較中美單位貨幣之黃金支撐力。結果顯示，該期間中國黃金供給累計 25,177 噸、需求 15,950 噸，供需差額達 9,227 噸；加計 2010 年前既有存量後，中國實際黃金儲備至少約 10,281 噸。納入潛在儲備後，人民幣單位黃金支撐量約為美元四倍（74% 對比 19%）。本文推論，中國可能基於降低購金成本、避免匯率快速升值及減少對國際秩序衝擊而採取低度申報策略。相較之下，臺灣央行黃金儲備長期維持約 410 噸且持續增持美債，於美債信用疑慮與美元資產武器化趨勢下，宜重新檢視並提高實體黃金配置比例。

Against a backdrop of institutionalized financial sanctions and rising geopolitical risk, the currency composition of global central bank reserves is undergoing a structural shift. As the freeze-ability of U.S. dollar assets and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability increase, a growing number of countries are trimming their dollar holdings and reallocating toward “de-trusted” assets such as gold, which carries no counterparty risk. Drawing on the literature on sanctions and reserve management, this study develops a supply-and-demand-surplus model to estimate China’s potential official gold reserves for 2010-2024 and to compare the gold backing of the renminbi and the U.S. dollar. During that period, China’s cumulative gold supply amounted to 25,177 t and observable demand to 15,950 t, generating a surplus of 9,227 t; when the pre-2010 stock of 1,054 t is added, China’s actual reserves are estimated to be at least 10,281 t. Including these potential reserves, the gold backing of the renminbi is roughly four times that of the U.S. dollar (74% versus 19%). We argue that China’s low-disclosure strategy may reflect efforts to keep acquisition costs down, prevent rapid renminbi appreciation, and avoid disrupting the existing international order. By contrast, Taiwan’s central bank has kept its gold reserves at roughly 410 t while continually increasing its U.S. Treasury holdings. In light of mounting doubts about U.S. debt sustainability and the weaponization of dollar assets, the paper recommends that authorities re-examine reserve structures and raise the share of physical gold.