頻譜最佳化之跨區水資源調度與關鍵節點評估

Abstract

近年來受到氣候變遷影響，極端乾旱與暴雨事件的發生頻率不斷增加。在水資源調度實務上，為確保民生用水之穩定，農業用水往往首當其衝，成為限水或休耕停灌的對象。為此政府積極推動「跨流域幹管的串接」，如何擬定其調度策略成為了關鍵的課題。本研究聚焦於農田水利署規劃之「北港溪渡槽」工程，旨在建立一套頻譜網路最佳化（Spectral Optimization Model）之跨流域水資源調度模型，藉以量化渡槽建設後所帶來之效益，並探討不同情境下之最佳調度策略。 此外，從過往的災變可發現，當水資源系統一旦遭遇自然災害或人為破壞時，常導致下游需求端長時間停水。因此，識別水資源系統中關鍵節點或管線，成為提升整體防災能力的重點。本研究進一步以所建構之最佳化模型為基礎，進行關鍵節點與管線的失效模擬，評估單一設施損毀對全系統供水能力之衝擊，來找出對系統影響最嚴重之核心設施。由研究結果可知，幹管串接能有效改善跨區域的水資源分配，實質減少整體的缺水情形。

Recently,global climate change patterns have accelerated the occurrence rate of extreme dry spells and torrential rains. To guarantee a steady domestic water supply, agricultural water usage often bears the brunt, becoming the primary target for water restrictions or irrigation suspensions. To address this, the government has actively promoted "inter-basin main pipeline connections," making the formulation of effective dispatching strategies a critical issue. This study focuses on the "Beigang River Aqueduct" project planned by the Irrigation Agency, aiming to establish an inter-basin water resource dispatching model based on Spectral Optimization. The objective is to quantify the benefits derived from the aqueduct's construction and to explore optimal dispatching strategies under various scenarios. Furthermore, historical disasters have demonstrated that when water resource systems are subjected to extreme natural disasters or human-induced damage, downstream demand ends often experience prolonged water supply interruptions. Consequently, pinpointing vital components and distribution lines in these networks has grown into a key focus for enhancing overall disaster resilience. Building upon the developed optimization model, this study further conducts failure simulations for critical nodes and pipelines. By evaluating the impact of a single facility's failure on the overall network's capacity for water delivery, the core facilities that most severely affect the system are identified. The research results indicate that inter-basin pipeline connections can effectively improve cross-regional water resource allocation, thereby substantially reducing the overall water shortage.