TCFD與TNFD框架下臺灣金融業氣候風險揭露與減碳績效之分析

Abstract

隨著全球邁向2050淨零路徑，氣候治理框架已由聚焦碳排放之TCFD，延伸至涵蓋自然資本的TNFD。臺灣〈氣候變遷因應法〉施行後，金融業雖非首波碳費課徵對象，卻面臨極端氣候之「實體風險」與高碳排投融資對象競爭力受損之「轉型風險」。鑑於金融業逾99%之碳排放源自範疇三（Scope 3）投融資組合，如何透過資本配置引導實體產業脫碳，已成為達成淨零目標之關鍵。 本研究以臺灣13家上市金融控股公司為研究對象，期間涵蓋2020至2024年，採量化與質化並行之混合研究法。量化部分透過TEJ資料庫蒐集碳排放數據，建立迴歸模型評估各金控之減碳績效與目標達成率，並模擬碳定價財務壓力測試；質化部分深度解析TCFD及TNFD之揭露內容，探討銀行、壽險、證券等子業別之策略異質性，並評估其與PCAF碳核算標準之接軌程度。 研究結果顯示：第一，臺灣金控業自身營運（範疇一、二）之減碳管理已臻成熟，迴歸分析確認資產規模與碳排放具高度相關，多數業者已達成2024年階段性目標；第二，範疇三投融資組合佔各金控碳排放逾99%，為核心風險所在，惟因子業別差異（銀行、壽險、證券）呈現不同之治理路徑，資訊不對稱與PCAF核算普及度不足為系統性挑戰；第三，碳費情境壓力測試顯示直接財務衝擊有限，關鍵風險在於高碳排投融資組合引發之資產估值轉型風險；第四，TNFD之LEAP方法論為自然風險治理提供新視角。本研究建議強化範疇三強制揭露規範，並推動轉型金融工具，以確保實體經濟之淨零韌性。

As the global financial sector transitions from a passive climate risk observer to a proactive net-zero facilitator, climate governance has evolved from the carbon-focused TCFD to the nature-inclusive TNFD. Following Taiwan’s enactment of the Climate Change Response Act (2023) and carbon fee implementation, financial institutions face both “physical risks” from extreme weather events and “transition risks” from the diminished competitiveness of high-carbon investees. Given that over 99% of financial sector emissions derive from Scope 3 financed portfolios, how institutions deploy capital allocation to steer industrial decarbonization has become the critical challenge on the path to net-zero by 2050. This study examines all 13 listed Financial Holding Companies (FHCs) in Taiwan over 2020–2024 using a mixed-methods approach. Quantitatively, GHG data from the TEJ database and sustainability reports were analyzed through a regression model to evaluate decarbonization performance and target attainment, supplemented by carbon fee stress tests. Qualitatively, TCFD and TNFD disclosures were examined to assess strategic heterogeneity across banking-, insurance-, and securities-oriented sub-sectors, and to evaluate alignment with the PCAF carbon accounting methodology. The findings reveal four key results. First, operational carbon management (Scope 1 and 2) has reached maturity: regression analysis confirms a strong asset-size-to-emissions relationship, with most FHCs meeting their 2024 reduction targets, though performance heterogeneity persists. Second, Scope 3 financed emissions (Category 15) account for over 99% of total carbon footprint across all FHCs, constituting the dominant climate risk; sub-sector structural differences and information asymmetry from incomplete PCAF adoption remain systemic governance barriers. Third, carbon fee stress tests indicate limited direct operational impact, but the critical risk lies in transition-driven asset valuation deterioration—specifically, rising Expected Credit Losses (ECL) and compressed capital adequacy ratios from high-carbon portfolios. Fourth, the TNFD’s LEAP methodology provides a structured framework for identifying nature-related financial risks embedded in financed portfolios. This study recommends mandatory Scope 3 disclosure with standardized PCAF accounting and the active development of Transition Finance instruments to strengthen the financial sector’s role as a net-zero transition facilitator.