政府合約比重變動對分析師報導追蹤意願、預測分歧與預測修正的影響

Abstract

本研究觀察美公司之政府合約營收比重變動，探討其是否影響證券分析師對該企業的盈餘預測行為，進一步評估分析師在面對政府委託案依賴度相關之企業訊號時，是否會調整其追蹤意願、盈餘預測分歧與預測修正方向。由於政府合約變動涉及政策因素，市場對其對企業未來盈餘之意涵的探究，涉及對政經與政府部門動向預測與資訊分析。此頗有別於於公司所面對一般之產業或個別企業事件，涉及市場對企業風險的評估考量，因此分析師對此訊號之解讀成為本文關注重點。 實證結果顯示，當政府合約佔營收比重上升時，分析師報導次數顯著下降，整體盈餘預測則呈現上調；反之，在政府合約比重下降的情況下，若其下降幅度愈大，分析師亦傾向上調盈餘預期。此外，無論政府合約比重為上升或下降，其政府佔營收比例愈高將顯著擴大分析師間盈餘預測分歧。本研究亦檢驗總體經濟與政治制度背景（如經濟衰退、政黨更替與是否是一致性政府）之調節效果，檢視分析師在外部政經不確定性升高時，是否其追蹤覆蓋策略變得更低; 結果顯示多數交互作用不顯著，而調節變數其主效應多呈負向。

This study explores whether and the extent to which shifts in the reliance of firms on government contracts affect security analysts’ forecasting behavior. Specifically, it explores how changes in government contract share influence analysts’ coverage, forecast dispersion, and direction of revision. Given the policy-sensitive nature of government contracts, such changes may entail uncertainty and lower transparency in political and governmental contexts, prompting analysts to reassess firm risk profiles. The results support the notion that increase in government contract share leads to reduced analyst coverage, slightly greater forecast dispersion, and upward earnings revisions. Conversely, in cases where the share of government contracts decreases, greater declines are also associated with upward earnings revisions. In addition, whether the share increases or decreases, a higher overall reliance on government revenue significantly amplifies forecast dispersion among analysts. Additional tests incorporating macroeconomic and political situation, namely, recessions, partisan turnover, majority party shifts in Congress (House and Senate,) and unified government reveal limited moderating effects, yielding insignificant results.