臺南科學園區擴建對周邊農地價格與區位變化之研究

Abstract

本研究以臺南科學園區擴建為背景，探討 2018 至 2024 年間新市區、善化區與安定區周邊農地市場之價格變化、交易熱度與空間分布特徵，並分析重大產業建設對農地市場之外溢效應。相較於既有研究多聚焦於住宅、商業不動產或都市土地，本研究將研究視角延伸至農地市場，從價格結構、空間輪動與制度條件角度，理解南科擴建下周邊農地市場之變化。 本研究採混合研究方法。量化部分以內政部實價登錄資料為基礎，分析三個行政區 2018 至 2024 年間具農地性質之土地交易案件，並以交易筆數、平均單價、中位數、四分位數及 P90 等指標觀察價格分布與交易熱度；質性部分則透過地主、不動產仲介與投資人訪談，補充市場預期、制度認知與交易決策邏輯。 研究結果顯示，南科周邊農地市場於研究期間內呈現明顯之價格結構上移。中位數、Q3 與 P90 等分布型指標同步提高，顯示價格變化並非僅由少數高價個案帶動，而是主流價位帶與高價帶共同調整。此外，價格與交易反應具有空間輪動特徵，新市區與善化區反應相對較早，安定區則於研究後段出現補漲與交易回溫，呈現由核心區向外圍承接區擴散之路徑。 進一步由段別觀察，2024 年交易活動高度集中於少數地段，且不同段別呈現多元價量型態，顯示外溢效應並非均質擴散，而是先於特定地段形成交易核心，再逐步影響周邊市場。綜合而言，南科擴建對周邊農地市場之影響，並非單純的地理距離式價格擴散，而是政策訊號、制度條件、市場預期與投資行為交互作用下形成之結構性市場調整。

This study examines the impact of the expansion of the Tainan Science Park on surrounding farmland markets in Xinshi District, Shanhua District, and Anding District from 2018 to 2024. Unlike previous studies that mainly focus on housing, commercial real estate, or urban land, this study extends the discussion to farmland markets and analyzes changes in price structure, spatial rotation, and institutional conditions. A mixed-methods approach is adopted. The quantitative analysis uses actual transaction registration data released by Taiwan’s Ministry of the Interior and examines farmland-related transactions through transaction volume, mean price, median price, quartiles, and the 90th percentile. The qualitative analysis is based on interviews with a local landowner, a real estate broker, and an investor to supplement the interpretation of market expectations and transaction behavior. The findings show a clear upward shift in farmland price structure during the study period. The simultaneous increase in the median, Q3, and P90 indicates that the price rise was not driven only by a few high-priced cases, but reflected a broader structural revaluation of the farmland market. Prices and transaction activity also showed spatial rotation: Xinshi and Shanhua responded earlier, while Anding experienced a more obvious late-stage catch-up, suggesting a diffusion path from core areas to outer receiving areas. At the micro-spatial level, transactions in 2024 were highly concentrated in a limited number of land sections, with diverse price-volume patterns across sections. Overall, the expansion of the Tainan Science Park did not simply generate a distance-based increase in farmland prices; rather, it triggered a structural market adjustment shaped by policy signals, institutional conditions, market expectations, and investment behavior.