臺灣鋼鐵業低碳轉型政策組合研析

Abstract

鋼鐵產業約占全臺灣溫室氣體排放量之十分之一，屬於典型的「難減碳排產業」。面對2050年淨零排放目標，鋼鐵業的低碳轉型不僅仰賴單一技術突破，亦涉及生產系統、基礎設施與市場機制等層面的結構性調整，需要政策組合促進並推動低碳轉型。 本研究結合量化的淨零減碳目標與質性的結構性因素，評估臺灣鋼鐵產業在低碳轉型過程中的關鍵落差。研究以符合淨零轉型路徑之轉型基準為分析起點，並引入涵蓋技術、基礎設施、市場需求、資本與政策等五大支柱的分析架構，透過文獻回顧與國內外專家半結構式訪談，系統性檢視臺灣鋼鐵業的轉型現況與限制條件。研究也進一步運用多層次視角理論(multi-level perspective, MLP)，分析外部地景壓力、體制鎖定與利基創新發展不足等因素，如何交互作用並形塑台灣鋼鐵低碳轉型瓶頸。 研究結果顯示，臺灣鋼鐵產業目前仍缺乏關鍵淨零基礎設施之跨架構整合規劃，且現行技術路徑規劃與長期淨零目標之間存在明顯落差。在體制層面，國營事業的治理結構使企業同時承受獲利要求與減碳期待，進而強化對既有高爐體系的路徑依賴，此舉也延伸產業供應鏈不穩定性形成產業安全的疑慮。體制內行動者對於轉型的基礎設施需求與國家策略連結低落，亦影響轉型策略積極度。此外，外部地景壓力雖已顯示轉型的機會之窗，但整體而言仍不足以有效鬆動既有體制，使利基創新得以突破制度鎖定並進入主流。 基於上述發現，本研究提出一套契合企業投資週期之具有時序性的政策組合，以支持鋼鐵產業之低碳轉型。政策建議聚焦於氫能為基礎的煉鋼技術作為核心轉型利基，優先推動關鍵基礎設施如氫能、再生能源的前期整合規劃，以及需求端機制建構如綠鋼定義、公共採購。於2030年後透過穩定的跨產業基礎設施制度架構，以及強化綠色公共採購與永續金融工具，引導低碳技術與制度向體制核心擴散。 整體而言，本研究不僅系統性呈現臺灣鋼鐵產業在低碳轉型過程中所面臨的結構性挑戰，亦提出具政策可行性之轉型路徑。研究結果顯示，鋼鐵業的低碳轉型不僅是回應全球淨零趨勢、更是推動產業升級並強化產業韌性的重要策略。

The iron and steel industry accounts for roughly 10% of national GHG emissions in Taiwan. As a hard-to-abate sector, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will require not only advances in low-carbon technologies but also broader structural transformations and a coherent policy mix. This study draws from a transition benchmark aligned with net-zero trajectories and applies a five-pillar framework—technology, infrastructure, demand, capital, and policy—to assess Taiwan’s iron and steel industry decarbonization progress. Based on literature review and semi-structured interviews with domestic and international experts, the research examines systemic barriers through the multi-level perspective theory, illustrating how landscape pressures, regime lock-in, and niche underdevelopment collectively limit transformative changes. The findings show that Taiwan’s steel industry lacks a cross-architecture integration plan for key net-zero infrastructures, and that current technology choices remain misaligned with long-term net-zero goals. Structural constraints linked to state-owned enterprise governance and an insufficiently opened window of opportunity further limit transformative change. Building on these findings, the study proposes a policy mix aligned with corporate investment cycles to support systemic reconfiguration—prioritizing hydrogen-based steel making technology, foundational infrastructure planning, and demand-side mechanisms, followed by post-2030 diffusion through stable hydrogen and CCS frameworks and strengthened green procurement. Overall, this research provides a comprehensive evaluation of Taiwan’s steel sector transition challenges and offers actionable pathways for accelerating decarbonization. It further highlights that low-carbon transition for iron and steel industry is not only a climate agenda but also a strategy for industrial upgrading and industrial resilience amid global net-zero restructuring.