水-能源-糧食面向下高雄市生態系服務供需與熱點分析

Abstract

近年來，全球氣候變遷與都市化進程加速，造成生態系統功能及結構穩定的衝擊，進而影響生態系服務(Ecosystem Services, ES)的供給與需求平衡。而水—能源—糧食(Water-Energy-Food, WEF)是維持人類生存及城市永續發展的關鍵要素，彼此間具有高度鏈結性並相互影響，因此，從 WEF鏈結視角探討生態系服務供需及其空間聚集分布，對於資源管理與政策制定具有重要意義。 本研究以高雄市為案例，運用InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs)模型套件，以 WEF視角，挑選六項代表性之生態系服務，包括Annual Water Yield、Sediment Delivery、Carbon Storage and Sequestration、Crop Production、Flood Risk Mitigation、Urban Cooling。針對每項服務，分別計算與量化其供給與需求後，建立供需指標(Ecosystem Services Supply-Demand Ratio, ESDR)，進行空間的匹配分析；在空間分析部分，採用 Getis-Ord Gi*統計量進行熱點分析(Hotspot Analysis），以及 Local Moran’s I 進行局部空間自相關檢定，辨識供需失衡之空間聚集區域，進而提出資源管理優先區域。此外，本研究亦透過整合水、能源與糧食的永續性指標，輔助評估資源壓力及永續風險。 研究結果指出，高雄市 ES供需具有明顯空間異質性，都市核心區與沿海工業區呈現高需求、低供給之失衡特徵；偏遠山區則呈現高供給、低需求之格局。同時，部分行政區在水資源壓力與能源面向的永續性呈現較高風險，反映資源使用壓力與服務供需失衡間可能存在潛在衝突。 綜合而言，本研究揭示高雄市生態系服務供需與永續性壓力之空間特性，並提出結合 WEF鏈結視角與空間統計分析之方法架構，可作為都市或區域尺度分區治理、永續資源管理與空間規劃之參考。期望研究成果能為高雄市推動永續發展政策、強化生態基礎設施與氣候變遷調適提供科學依據與策略建議。

In recent years, accelerating global climate change and urbanization have disrupted the stability of ecosystem structure and functions, thereby affecting the balance between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES). Water, energy, and food (Water–Energy–Food, WEF) are key elements for sustaining human survival and urban sustainable development, and are highly interconnected and mutually influential. Therefore, examining ecosystem service supply–demand patterns and their spatial clustering from a WEF nexus perspective is of great significance for resource management and policy formulation. This study takes Kaohsiung City as a case study and applies the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling suite from a WEF perspective. Six representative ecosystem services were selected, including annual Water Yield, sediment delivery, carbon storage and sequestration, crop production, flood risk mitigation, and urban cooling. For each service, supply and demand were calculated and quantified, and an Ecosystem Services Supply–Demand Ratio (ESDR) was established to conduct spatial matching analysis. Spatial analyses were performed using the Getis–Ord Gi* statistic for hotspot analysis and Local Moran’s I for local spatial autocorrelation analysis, in order to identify spatially clustered areas of supply–demand imbalance and thus propose priority areas for resource management. In addition, this study integrated WEF sustainability indicators to support the assessment of resource pressures and sustainability risks. The results indicate that ecosystem service supply and demand in Kaohsiung City exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. Urban core areas and coastal industrial zones show imbalance characteristics of high demand and low supply, whereas mountainous and remote areas present a pattern of high supply and low demand. Meanwhile, some administrative districts demonstrate higher risks in terms of water resource pressure and sustainability performance in the energy dimension, reflecting potential conflicts between resource use intensity and ecosystem service supply–demand imbalance. Overall, this study reveals the spatial characteristics of ecosystem service supply–demand relationships and sustainability pressures in Kaohsiung City, and proposes a methodological framework that integrates a WEF nexus perspective with spatial statistical analysis. The results can serve as a reference for zoned governance, sustainable resource management, and spatial planning at urban or regional scales, and are expected to provide scientific evidence and strategic guidance for promoting sustainable development policies, strengthening ecological infrastructure, and enhancing climate change adaptation in Kaohsiung City.