筆記型電腦代工產業建立韌性供應鏈的策略研究

Abstract

本研究旨在探討筆記型電腦代工產業該如何建立韌性供應鏈，以應對產業所面對未來再度發生類似過去的危機和挑戰時，可以有效恢復產業秩序。在當前世界經濟社會發展中，不管是對企業或一般消費者，筆記型電腦都是必需品。尤其是在目前遠距辦公、遠距教學愈加普及的當下，筆記型電腦將承擔更大的生產力工具和生活休閒工具的功能。根據IDC統計，2022年全球筆記型電腦出貨量為2億7百萬台，年產業總產值高達1,960億美元。2019年至2022年，3年間出貨量共成長19.8%，因此，當其生產供應鏈面臨挑戰，將對經濟以及民生消費造成重大影響。過去五年筆記型電腦供應鏈所面臨新的危機與挑戰，包括來自政治、天災、經濟、以及供應鏈斷鏈的影響，超過前30年的總和，而這些外在及內部的干擾將持續發生。面對未來的不確定性，代工廠必須要有新的思維以及新的方式來做數位化轉型，才能突破困境。 在文章架構上，本文第一章為緒論，介紹本研究的背景、動機與目的、流程與架構。第二章為本研究所應用的供應鏈理論，包括供應鏈管理、高效能Tipple A供應鏈、韌性供應鏈管理、微笑曲線、及時生產/庫存管理、長鞭效應、以及第二曲線等。第三章介紹了本篇論文的研究方法，主要包括案頭研究、文獻分析、問卷調查與深度訪談。第四章為產業分析，介紹筆記型電腦以及筆記型電腦代工產業的發展史、筆記型電腦的結構與供應鏈情形。焦點集中在五大ODM（Original Design Manufacturing）代工廠“電子五哥”（廣達、仁寶、緯創、英業達、和碩），其市場佔有率曾經達到接近全球的90%，目前也仍然維持在接近七成，也就是每10台筆記型電腦，就有7台出自這五家廠商。第五章是藉由深度訪談以及問卷調查筆記型電腦代工廠，以及他們的主要客戶和零件供應商，收集他們過去5年所面臨的主要問題，以及當時和未來可能採取的應對方法，最終總結提煉出“筆記型電腦代工產業建立韌性供應鏈”的六大類17種方法。其中包括但不限於多元化供應商和生產基地、加強預測和監督能力、建立有效的風險管理機制、以及加強與合作夥伴之間的溝通與協作等。在第六章中，透過兩個案例，對本文研究進行了具象化的討論。針對供應鏈過去所面臨最主要的零件採購問題，實際類比未來再度發生的時候，建議代工廠應採取的前五大因應措施，包括建立及時資訊分享與警示系統，繪製完整的供應鏈地圖，增加平時零件庫存水位，建立資料庫分析系統，以及分散新供應鏈基地。最後，第七章總結了本論文的主要發現和貢獻，即筆記型電腦代工產業須如何建立韌性供應鏈，以應對未來發生的危機和挑戰，只有建立韌性供應鏈，才可以幫助這些筆記型電腦代工廠，提高其面對危機的恢復能力和生存能力。

This study aims to explore how the notebook computer ODM (Original Design Manufacturing) industry can establish a resilient supply chain to effectively restore industrial order when crises and challenges similar to the past occur again in the future. Whether for business or general consumers, notebook computers are a necessity. Especially now that remote working and distant learning are becoming more and more popular, notebook computers will assume greater functions as productivity tools and life and leisure tools. According to IDC statistics, global notebook computer shipments were 207 million units in 2022, and the total annual industry output value was as high as US$196 billion. From 2019 to 2022, shipments increased by 19.8% in three years. Therefore, when its production and supply chain faces challenges, it will have a major impact on the economy and people's livelihood consumption. In the past five years, the notebook computer supply chain has faced more impacts from politics, natural disasters, economics, and supply chain disruptions than in the previous 30 years combined. These external and internal disruptions will continue to occur. Therefore, notebook computer ODMs must have new thinking and new ways to conduct digital transformation in order to break through the difficulties. In terms of article structure, the first chapter of this article is the introduction, which introduces the background, motivation and purpose, process and structure of this research. Chapter 2 is the supply chain theory applied in this research, including supply chain management, high-efficiency Tipple A supply chain, resilient supply chain management, smile curve, just-in-time production/inventory management, bull whip effect, and the second curve, etc. Chapter 3 introduces the research methods of this paper, which mainly include desk research, document analysis, questionnaire survey and in-depth interviews. Chapter 4 is industry analysis, introducing the development history of the notebook computer industry, the structure and supply chain of notebook computers ODMs. The focus is on the top 5 ODMs, so called "Five Electronics Brothers" (namely Quantaea, Compal, Wistron, Inventec, and Pegatron), whose market share once reached close to 90% of the world's market share, and currently remains at close to 70%. That is, 7 out of every 10 notebook computers are produced by these five manufacturers. Chapter 5 proposes through in-depth interviews and questionnaires to survey notebook computer ODMs, as well as their major customers and parts suppliers, to collect the main problems faced in the past five years, as well as possible solutions at that time and in the future. In the end, 17 methods in six categories were extracted to "build a resilient supply chain for the notebook computer ODM industry". These include but are not limited to diversifying suppliers and production bases, strengthening forecasting and supervision capabilities, establishing effective risk management mechanisms, and strengthening communication and collaboration with partners. In Chapter 6, the research attention of this article is discussed concretely through two cases. Regarding the most important parts procurement and inventory problem faced by the supply chain in the past, when it happens again in the future, this article recommends the top five response measures that ODMs should take include establishing a real-time information sharing and warning system, drawing a complete supply chain map, and increasing daily parts inventory levels, establishing database analysis systems, and decentralizing new supply chain bases. Finally, Chapter 7 summarizes the main findings and contributions of this paper, that is, how the notebook computer ODM industry must establish a resilient supply chain to cope with future crises and challenges. Only by establishing a resilient supply chain can help these notebook computer ODMs to improve their resilience and survivability in the face of crises.