以社會脈絡與社會心理的觀點探討臺灣民眾主觀災害韌性之影響因素

Abstract

隨著極端災害事件頻繁，災害韌性成為氣候變遷調適與災害治理領域的核心主題之一。然而，既有研究在評估災害韌性時，大多以社區作為分析單位並偏重客觀物質和制度體系對於災害韌性的影響，較少關注影響個人主觀災害韌性及其成因。有鑑於此，本文嘗試整合不同理論觀點，試圖檢驗社會脈絡與社會心理因素對於個人主觀災害韌性之影響。運用臺灣韌性社會研究中心於 2024 年所搜集之問卷調查資料及官方公布的數據進行迴歸分析。研究結果發現，個人居住環境的客觀物質條件與制度體系並未對個人感知韌性能力造成顯著的影響。同時，僅有結合型社會資本會顯著正向地影響個人的主觀災害韌性評估結果。此外，氣候變遷風險感知越高的民眾，越傾向認為自己並不具備足夠的災害應對能力。最後，當民眾具備更高應對災害能力的信心，會更傾向認為自己具有調適災害的能力。總結來說，相較於社會脈絡因素，社會心理因素對於個人評估自己是否具備災害韌性能力過程中似乎扮演了更為重要的角色。

Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, elevating disaster resilience to a central priority within global and national governance frameworks. While prior research has extensively assessed objective, community-level resilience grounded in infrastructural and institutional system, systematic investigation into subjective disaster resilience—individuals’ perceived ability to adapt and cope—remains limited. This study addresses this gap by examining the determinants of subjective disaster resilience among the Taiwanese public through an integrated theoretical framework that incorporates social-contextual factors (social vulnerability and social capital) and socio-psychological factors (risk perception and efficacy). Drawing on survey data from the Taiwan Social Resilience Research Center (TSRRC) and administrative indicators of social vulnerability, we employ Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to identify the key predictors of self-assessed disaster resilience.

The findings reveal that subjective disaster resilience is associated predominantly with internal psychological factors rather than with external environmental conditions. Neither social vulnerability nor bridging or linking social capital shows any statistically significant effects, whereas bonding social capital—characterized by close, trust-based networks—exerts a statistically significant and positive influence. Climate-related risk perception exhibits a negative association with subjective disaster resilience, suggesting that heightened threat emphasis may erode individuals’ confidence in their adaptive capacity. In contrast, self-efficacy emerges as the strongest and most consistent positive predictor across all model specifications. These findings highlight the need for resilience policies that extend beyond risk dissemination and institutional directives. Effective strategies should focus on strengthening self-efficacy through scenario-based training, fostering bonding social capital via neighborhood mutual-aid mechanisms, and advancing resilience-oriented risk communication frameworks to enhance public capacity in the face of escalating climate risks.