疫情對台灣租賃市場的重構：全台實價登錄資料之實證研究

Abstract

COVID-19 疫情的爆發不僅是一場公共衛生危機，更深刻地改變了人們的工作與生活模式。隨著居家辦公與遠距學習的普及，「家」的功能從單純的居住空間，轉變為同時承載工作、學習與休閒等多重功能的綜合場域。此一轉變促使租客對居住空間的需求產生根本性改變，也重新塑造了住宅市場的運作邏輯。 本研究以 COVID-19 疫情作為外生衝擊，運用民國 106 年至 113 年台灣實價登錄的租賃資料，透過特徵價格模型、市場需求模型與分量迴歸模型，系統性地檢視疫情對台灣租賃市場價格與交易量的影響。研究將樣本期間劃分為疫情前（109 年 2 月前）、疫情期間（109 年 2 月至 112 年 5 月）與疫情後（112 年 5 月後）三個階段，並深入探討不同住宅類型（套房、公寓、華廈、住宅大樓、透天厝）與用途（住家、商業）在疫情衝擊下的異質性反應。 實證結果顯示，疫情帶來的經濟不確定性與預算緊縮壓力，迫使租客在有限預算下重新權衡空間配置的優先順序。市場價值觀念發生了結構性的轉變，從單純追求大坪數，轉向更重視空間的功能性、獨立性與使用效率。疫情期間，租賃面積與房數的隱含價值顯著下降，反映出租客為控制總租金支出而做出的妥協；然而疫情後，房數價值大幅反彈提升 5.53%，交易量增長 15.78%，呈現價量齊揚的趨勢，證實多房格局產品已成為後疫情時代的核心需求。 不同住宅類型間的影響也呈現顯著的差異。公寓與華廈因親民的總租金、低公設比與高實用坪數，在後疫情時代下較具優勢，房數與廳數的價量皆顯著上揚。相較之下，套房因其單一的混合型空間結構，難以滿足生活與工作功能分區的需求，陷入價量齊跌的困境。商業用途物件則因居家辦公趨勢的普及，需求大幅萎縮。分量迴歸的結果進一步顯示，疫情對不同價位市場的影響具有異質性，高價位市場對多房格局的溢價效應更為強烈，反映出具高消費能力租客對私密性與功能性空間的強烈需求。 本研究證實，疫情作為重大外部衝擊，加速了租賃市場偏好由疫情前對大坪數、大物件的偏好，轉為疫情期間對公共空間的重視，並在疫情後轉向有良好空間區隔的配置。這些發現不僅為理解疫情對住宅需求的長期影響提供實證依據，也為租賃市場政策制定者與房地產業者提供有價值的參考。

The COVID-19 outbreak was not merely a public health crisis but profoundly transformed people's work and lifestyle patterns. With the widespread adoption of remote work and distance learning, the role of "home" has evolved from a simple living space into a multifunctional space that simultaneously accommodates work, study, and leisure activities. This transformation fundamentally altered tenants' housing needs and reshaped the operational logic of the residential market. This study treats the COVID-19 pandemic as an exogenous shock. It employs Taiwan's Actual Price Registration rental data from 2017 to 2024, utilizing hedonic price models, market demand models, and quantile regression models to systematically examine the pandemic's impact on rental market prices and transaction volumes. The study divides the sample period into three phases: pre-pandemic (before February 2020), during pandemic (February 2020 to May 2023), and post-pandemic (after May 2023), and investigates the heterogeneous responses of different housing types (studio apartments, walk-ups, mid-rise apartments, high-rise residential buildings, and townhouses) and uses (residential and commercial) under pandemic shocks. Empirical results reveal that economic uncertainty and budget constraints brought by the pandemic forced tenants to reconsider spatial allocation priorities under limited budgets. Market value perceptions underwent a fundamental transformation, shifting from simply pursuing larger floor areas to emphasizing functionality, independence, and spatial efficiency. During the pandemic, the implicit values of rental area and number of rooms declined significantly, reflecting tenants' compromises to control total rent expenditure. However, post-pandemic, room value rebounded substantially by 5.53%, with transaction volumes increasing 15.78%, demonstrating price-volume co-movement and confirming that multi-room properties have become core demand in the post-pandemic era. Different housing types exhibited significantly differentiated responses. Walk-ups and mid-rise apartments demonstrated strong market resilience in the post-pandemic period due to their affordable total rent, low public facility ratios, and high usable floor area advantages, with both price and volume of rooms and living rooms rising significantly. In contrast, studio apartments, with their singular mixed-space structure unable to meet the needs for functional zoning between living and working, fell into a price-volume decline trap. Commercial properties experienced substantial demand contraction due to the prevalence of remote work trends. Quantile regression results further revealed heterogeneous pandemic impacts across different price segments, with high-price markets showing stronger premium effects for multi-room layouts, reflecting strong demand from high-income tenants for privacy and functional spaces. This study demonstrates that the COVID-19 pandemic, as a major exogenous shock, accelerated a shift in rental-market preferences: from a pre‑pandemic emphasis on larger floor areas and larger units, to a pandemic-period focus on public and shared spaces, and, in the post‑pandemic phase, toward configurations featuring robust internal spatial partitioning and functional zoning. These findings provide empirical evidence on the long-run effects of the pandemic on housing demand and offer valuable guidance for rental‑market policymakers and real estate practitioners.