企業現金持有與不確定性:國際證據

Abstract

近年來，持續的戰爭與貿易衝突對全球貿易秩序造成越來越大的壓力，政治與經濟不確定性亦持續加劇。因此，企業必須採取更為謹慎的現金持有策略。本研究聚焦於不確定性對全球企業的影響，並提出兩種競爭性假說：根據預防性動機理論，當不確定性增加時，企業會為了應對未來風險而累積更多現金作為緩衝；相對地，根據代理理論，於不確定性升高期間減少現金儲備，則有助於降低與自由現金流相關的代理成本。 本研究使用2000至2023年間涵蓋104個國家、36,744家公司的數據，發現世界不確定性指數與現金持有之間存在顯著的負相關。進一步採用差異中的差異方法，並將英國脫歐與伊拉克戰爭視為不確定性的外生衝擊，實證結果顯示，不確定性與企業現金持有之間存在穩健的負向關係。這一結果與代理理論相符：不確定性升高可能使企業採取更為保守的經濟展望，從而增加自由現金流。在此情況下，降低現金持有可作為一種內部公司治理機制，以減輕代理成本。

Ongoing wars and trade conflicts in recent years have placed mounting pressure on the global trade order, while political and economic uncertainty has continued to intensify. Consequently, firms are required to adopt more prudent cash-holding strategies. This study focuses on the impact of uncertainty across a global sample of firms. We propose two competing hypotheses: according to the precautionary motive, increased uncertainty prompts firms to accumulate higher levels of cash as a buffer against future risks. In contrast, under the agency view of cash holdings, reducing cash reserves during periods of heightened uncertainty may help mitigate agency costs associated with free cash flow. Using data from 36,744 firms across 104 countries from 2000 to 2023, we find a significant negative association between the World Uncertainty Index and cash holdings. Employing the difference-in-differences method and using Brexit and the Iraq War as exogenous shocks to uncertainty, we find robust evidence of a negative relationship between uncertainty and corporate cash holdings. The results are consistent with agency theory: heightened uncertainty may lead firms to adopt a more conservative economic outlook, resulting in increased free cash flow. In such cases, reducing cash holdings can serve as an internal corporate governance mechanism to mitigate agency costs.