漁電共生政策對臺南虱目魚產業之影響

Abstract

在全球氣候變化和能源轉型的大背景下，臺灣政府提出了「2025非核家園」目標，旨在通過發展再生能源實現能源結構的綠色轉型。漁電共生政策作為這一轉型過程中的政策，將水產養殖與太陽能發電有機結合，以實現土地資源的多功能利用和能源的綠色生產。然而，漁電共生政策在臺南市的推行過程中遭遇了阻力和挑戰。本研究旨在探討漁電共生政策在臺南市的推行過程，分析其對虱目魚價格的影響，以及漁電共生給漁民的議題及感受、認知，為政策制定者提供有益參考。本研究採用混合研究方法進行。在量化層面，研究利用2016年至2024年的月度資料，構建迴歸模型，以虱目魚價格為被解釋變數，並納入政策虛擬變數、虱目魚與吳郭魚交易量、疫情期及低溫寒害等控制變數。在質性層面，則通過對漁民、地主、光電從業者及漁業上下游通路商進行半結構化深度訪談，並運用共詞分析法，深入剖析各群體對政策的認知、態度及互動關係。經研究後漁電共生政策本身對虱目魚價格的直接影響在統計上並不顯著，價格波動主要仍由市場供需關係、疫情衝擊及自然災害之因素主導。然而，質性分析顯示政策推行過程中各族群之矛盾：這些矛盾源於政策溝通不暢、資訊透明度不足、利益分配機制不公以及在地參與度薄弱等問題，導致政策理念在實踐中面臨挑戰。據此研究提出未來政策優化應著重於加強政策的連貫性與可預測性、提升決策與資訊傳遞的透明度，並建立有效的多元利益相關者參與機制，方能在推動能源轉型的同時，確保漁業的長遠可持續發展。

Amid Taiwan’s energy transition, the government promotes aquaculture–photovoltaic (Aqua-PV) to support the non-nuclear-by-2025 goal. This study examines Aqua-PV implementation in Tainan and its association with milkfish price dynamics, while documenting stakeholder perceptions and responses.We adopt a mixed-methods design. Quantitatively, we assemble monthly data (2016–2024) and estimate OLS models with milkfish price as the dependent variable, controlling for a policy dummy, milkfish/tilapia transaction volumes, a COVID-19 dummy (2020–2022), and a low-temperature/cold-spell indicator. Qualitatively, we conduct semi-structured interviews with fishers, landowners, PV developers, and upstream/downstream channel actors, and apply co-word analysis (as a complement to thematic coding) to map salient concerns and linkages.The estimates indicate that the direct policy effect on prices is not statistically significant; observed fluctuations align mainly with market supply–demand, pandemic shocks, and weather risks. Qualitative findings show divergent priorities—income stability (landowners), production cost and livelihood considerations (fishers), investment efficiency (developers), and supply-chain reliability (channel firms)—and highlight needs for stronger policy communication, information transparency, benefit-sharing arrangements, and local participation.We conclude that Aqua-PV’s price impact appears limited, whereas process design and trust-building are central to outcomes. Policy refinement should emphasize coherence and predictability, transparent decision-making and information flows, and effective multi-stakeholder engagement to advance energy transition alongside the long-term sustainability of the fishery sector.