請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/43067
完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 林修葳 | |
dc.contributor.author | Mei-Feng Lin | en |
dc.contributor.author | 林美鳳 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-15T01:35:19Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2019-07-17 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2009-07-22 | |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2009-07-17 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 金成隆及林修葳,1998,台灣上市公司月盈餘揭露行為之實證研究,證券市場發展季刊,39, 31-64。
金成隆及林修葳,2003,分析師類型與企業生命週期關係之研究,行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫。 經濟日報,2009,預測花旗將出事 惠特尼金融亂世先知?2009-04-10,A6版,國際財經。 Abarbanell, J., and V. Bernard, 1992. Tests of analysts’ overreaction/underreaction to earnings information as an explanation for anomalous stock price behavior. Journal of Finance 1181-207. Adut, D., W. H. Cready, and T. J. Lopez, 2003, Restructuring charges and CEO cash compensation: A reexamination, The Accounting Review 78 (1): 169–192. Agrawal, A., S. Chadha, and M. A. Chen, 2006. Who is afraid of Reg FD? The behavior and performance of sell-side analysts following the SEC’s Fair Disclosure Rules, Journal of Business 79 (6): 2811-2834. Ali, A. and P. Zarowin, 1992. The role of earnings levels in annual earnings-returns studies. Journal of Accounting Research 30(2): 286-296. Angwin, J., and M. Peers, 2001. Cold calls: AOL may be snubbing Merrill. Wall Street Journal (January 1): C1. Asquith, P., M., Mikhail, and A. Au, 2005. Information content of equity analyst reports. Journal of Financial Economics 75: 245-282. Barber, W. R., S-H. Kang and K. R. Kumar, 1998, Accounting earnings and executive compensations: The role of earnings persistence, Journal of Accounting and Economics 25: 169-193. Barron, O. E., D. Byard and Y. Yu, 2008. Earnings surprises that motivate analysts to reduce average forecast error, The Accounting Review 83 (2): 303–325. Barth, M.E., R. Kasznik, and M.F. McNichols, 2002. Analyst coverage and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting Research 39:1-34. Basu, S., 1997. The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 24 (1): 3-37. Beaver, W. 1998. Financial reporting: An accounting revolution. Third edition. Upper Saddle, MJ: Prentice Hall. Bernhardt, D., M. Campello, and E. Kutsoati. 2006. Who herds? Journal of Financial Economics 80: 657–675. Bhushan, R., 1989. Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11: 255-274. Brennan, M., and P. Hughes, 1991. Stock prices and the supply of information. Journal of Finance 46:1665-1691. Bricker, R., G. Previts, T. Robinson and S. Young. 1995. Financial analyst assessment of earnings quality. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance 19 (3): 541-554. Brown, L. 1993. Earnings forecasting research: Its implications for capital markets research. International Journal of Forecasting 9: 295-320. Brown, L.D. 2001. A temporal analysis of earnings surprises: Profits versus losses. Journal of Accounting Research 39 (2): 221-241. Brown, L., P. Griffin, R. Hagerman, and M. Zmijewski, 1987. An evaluation of alternative proxies for market’s assessment of unexpected earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 9: 159-193. Chang, B., 2007. Who leads? University of Toronto working paper. Chen, S., and D. A. Matsumoto, 2006, Favorable versus unfavorable recommendations: The impact on analyst access to management-provided information, Journal of Accounting Research 44 (4): 657-689. Chen, Q., and W., Jiang, 2006. Analysts’ weighting of private and public information. Review of Financial Studies 19: 319–355. Cheng, G.S. A., C-S. Liu, and T. Schaefer. 1996. Earnings permanence and the incremental information content of cash flows from operations. Journal of Accounting Research 34 (Spring): 173– 181. Cheng, Q., 2005. The role of analysts’ forecasts in accounting-based valuation: a critical evaluation. Review of Accounting Studies 10: 5-31. Choi, H., 1994. Analysis and valuation implications of persistence and cash-content. Dimensions of earnings components based on extent of analyst following. Ph.D dissertation, Georgia Institute of Technology. Chung, K., and H. Jo. 1996. The impact of security analysts’ monitoring and marketing functions on the market value of firms. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 31: 493-512. Clement, M.B., 1999. Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter? Journal of Accounting and Economics 27: 285-303. Clement, M.B., and S.Y. Tse, 2003. Do investors respond to analysts’ forecast revision as if forecast accuracy is all that matters? The Accounting Review 78: 227-249. Clement, M.B., and S.Y. Tse, 2005. Financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting, The Journal of Finance, LX (1): 307-341. Clement, M., L. Koonce and T. J. Lopez, 2007. The Roles of task-specific forecasting experience and innate ability in understanding analyst forecasting performance. Journal of Accounting and Economics 44: 378–398. Collins, D.W., E. L. Maydew, and I.S. Weiss, 1997. Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years. Journal of Accounting and Economics 24: 39-67. Cooper, R. A., T. E. Day, and C. M. Lewis, 2001. Following the leader: A study of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Financial Economics 61: 383-416. Cote, J. and D. Sanders, 1997. Herding behavior: Explanations and implications. Behavioral Research in Accounting 9: 20–45. Cowen, A., B. Groysberg, P. Healy, 2006. Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic? Journal of Accounting and Economics 41: 119–146. Das, S., C. B. Levine, and K. Sivaramakrishnan, 1998. Earnings predictability and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 73 (2):277-294. Das, S., R-J. Guo, and H. Zhang, 2006. Analysts' selective coverage and subsequent performance of newly public firms. The Journal of Finance 61 (3): 1159 – 1185. DeBondt, W., and R. Thaler, 1990. Do security analysts overreact? American Economic Review 80: 52–57. Dechow, P. M., A. Hutton, and R. Sloan, 2000, The relation between analysts’ forecasts of long-term earnings and stock price performance following equity offerings, Contemporary Accounting Research 17: 1-32. Dechow, P. M., and C. M. Schrand, 2004. Earnings Quality, Research Foundation of CFA Institute, Charlottesville, VA. Dechow, P. M., R. G. Sloan, and A. P. Sweeney., 1995, Detecting earnings management, The Accounting Review, April, 193-225. Dorfman, J., 1991. Analysts devote more time to selling as firms keep scorecard on performance. Wall Street Journal Oct. 29, 1991. Dugar, A., and Nathan, S., 1995. The effect of investment banking relationships on financial analysts’ earnings forecasts and investment recommendations. Contemporary Accounting Research 12, 131-160. Elgers, P.T., and H. Lo. 1994. Reductions in analysts’ annual earnings forecast errors using information in prior earnings and security returns. Journal of Accounting Research, 290-303. Findlay, S., and P.G. Mathew, 2006. An examination of the differential impact of regulation FD on analysts’ forecast accuracy, The Financial Review (41): 9-31. Francis, J., and D. Philbrick, 1993. Analysts’ decisions as products of a multi-task environment. Journal of Accounting Research 31: 216-231. Francis, J., and R. Willis, 2001. An alternative test for self-selection in analysts’ forecasts. Duke University Working Paper. Francis, J., R. LaFond, P. M. Olsson and K. Schipper, 2004, Costs of equity and earnings attributes, The Accounting Review 79 (4): 967-1010. Frankel, R., and Charles M.C. Lee, 1998. Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns. Journal of Accounting and Economics 25: 283-319. Gleason, C.A., and C.M.C. Lee, 2003. Analyst forecast revisions and market price discovery. Accounting Review 78 (1): 193-225. Graham, J.R., 1999. Herding among investment newsletters: theory and evidence. The Journal of Finance 54: 237-268. Gu, Z., and J. Xue, 2006, The disciplining role and superiority of independent analysts, working paper. Hayes, R., 1998. The impact of trading commission incentives on analysts’ stock coverage decisions and earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 36, 299-320. Hayn, C., 1995. The information content of losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics 20: 125-153. Healy, P.M., A.P. Hutton and K.G. Palepu. 1999. A stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure. Contemporary Accounting Research 16: 485-520. Heckman, J., 1979. Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrics 47: 153-161. Hilary, G., and L. Menzly. 2006. Do past success lead analysts to become overconfident? Management science 52 (4): 489-500. Hong, H., J. Kubik and A. Solomon, 2000. Security analysts’ career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts, RAND Journal of Economics 31: 121-144. I/B/E/S, 2004, Thomson Financial Glossary: A guide to understanding Thomson Financial terms and conventions for the First Call and I/B/E/S estimates databases. Iman, R. L. and J. W. Conover. 1979. The use of rank transformation in regression. Technometrics 21: 499-509. Irani, A. J., and I. Karamanou, 2003. Regulation Fair Disclosure, analyst following, and analyst forecast dispersion, Accounting Horizons, 17(1): 15-29. Jackson, A. 2005. Trade generation, reputation, and sell-side analysts. The Journal of Finance 60 (2): 673–717. Jacob, J., T. Lys, and M. Neale, 1999. Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts. Journal of Accounting and Economics 28: 51-82. Janakiraman, S.N., S. Radhakrishnan, and R. Szwejkowski, 2006. Regulation Fair Disclosure and analysts' first-forecast horizon, University of Texas at Dallas Working paper. Jegadeesh, N., and N. Kim, 2007. Do analysts herd? An analysis of recommendations and market reactions. Working paper. Jung, B., P.B. Shane, and S. Yang, 2008. The existence and value-relevance of financial analysts’ long-term growth forecasts, Working paper. Ke, B., and Y. Yu, 2006. The effect of issuing biased earnings forecasts on analysts’ access to management and survival. Journal of Accounting Research 44 (5): 965-999. Kelly, K., 2003. One analyst learns candor doesn’t pay. Wall Street Journal, (February 5): C1. Kormendi, R., and R. Lipe, 1987. Earnings innovations, earnings persistence, and stock returns. Journal of Business 60(3): 323-345 Krishnan, M., S. C. Lim, and P. Zhou, 2006. Analysts’ herding propensity: Theory and evidence from earnings forecasts. AAA 2007 Financial Accounting & Reporting Section (FARS) Meeting Paper. Lakonishok, J., A. Shleifer, and R.W., Vishny, 1992. The impact of institutional trading on stock prices. Journal of Financial Economics 32 (1): 23-43. Lamont, O., 1995. Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters. working Paper, Cambridge, MA. Lamont, O., 2002. Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 48, 265–280. Lang, M. H., and R. J. Lundholm, 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review 71: 467-492. Lees, F. 1981. Public disclosure of corporate earnings forecasts. New York, NY: The Conference Board. Leone, A., and J. S. Wu, 2007. What does it take to become a superstar? Evidence from Institutional Investor Rankings of financial analysts, Working paper. Lim, T. 2001. Rationality and analysts’ forecast bias. Journal of Finance 56 (1), 369-385. Lin, H., M. McNichols, 1998. Underwriting relationships, analysts’ earnings forecasts and investment recommendations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 25, 101-127. Matsumoto, D., 2002, Management’s incentives to avoid negative earnings surprise. The Accounting Review 77: 483-514. McNichols, M., and P. O’Brien, 1997. Self-selection and analyst coverage. Journal of Accounting Research 35: 167-199. Mensah, Y.M., and R. Yang, 2008. An empirical evaluation of analysts’ herding behavior following Regulation Fair Disclosure. Journal of Accounting Public Policy 27: 317-338. Michaely, R., K. Womack, 1999. Conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations. Review of Financial Studies 12, 653-686. Mikhail, M.B., R.W. Wills and B.R. Walther, 1997. Do security analysts improve their performance with experience? Journal of Accounting and Economics 35: 131-157. Mikhail, M.B., B.R. Walther, and R.W. Willis, 1999. Does forecast accuracy matter to security analysts? The Accounting Review 74: 185-200. Milkhail, M.B., B.R. Walther, and R.W. Willis, 2004. Do security analysts exhibit persistent differences in stock picking ability? Journal of Financial Economics 74: 67-91. Moharam, P. S., and S. V. Sunder, 2006. How has regulation FD affected the operations of financial analysts? Contemporary Accounting Research 23 (2): 491-525. O’Brien, P. C., and R. Bhushan, 1990, Analyst following and institutional ownership. Journal of Accounting Research 28: 55-76. Oei, R., A. Ramsay and P. Mather, 2008.Earnings persistence, accruals and managerial share ownership, Accounting and Finance 48: 475–502 Olsen, R.A., 1996. Implications of herding behavior for earnings estimation, risk assessment, and stock returns. Financial Analysts Journal 52 (4): 37-41. Ou, J.A., and S.H. Penman, 1989. Accounting measurement, price-earnings ratio, and the information content of security prices. Journal of Accounting Research 27: 111-144. Penman, S. H., and X. J. Zhang. 2002. Accounting conservatism, the quality of earnings, and stock returns. The Accounting Review 77 (April): 237-264. Rajan, R., and H. Servaes, 1997. Analyst following of initial public offerings. Journal of Finance 52 (June): 507-529. Ramnath, S., S. Rock and P. Shane, 2008. The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research. International Journal of Forecasting 24: 34-75. Richardson, S., S. Teoh, and P. Wysocki, 2004. The walk down to beatable analysts’ forecasts: The role of equity issuance and inside trading incentives. Contemporary Accounting Research 21: 885-924. Ritter, J.R., 1987. Signalling and the valuation of unseasoned new issues: A comment. Journal of Finance 39 (September): 1231-1237. Scharfstein, D. S., and J. C. Stein, 1990. Herd behavior and investment. The American Economic Review 80 (3): 465-479. Schipper, K., and L. Vincent. 2003. Earnings quality. Accounting Horizons17: 97-110. Shiller, R. J.: 1995, Conversation, information, and herd behavior, The American Economic Review 85 (2): 181–185. Shroff, P. K., R. Venkataraman and B. Xin, 2005, Timeliness of analysts’ forecasts: The informational role of follower analysts, University of Minnesota Working paper. Siconolfi, M., 1995. Incredible ‘buys’: Many companies press analysts to steer clear of negative ratings—Stock research is tainted as naysayers are banned, undermined and berated— Small investors in the Dark. Wall Street Journal (July 19): A1. Sinha, P., L. Brown, and S. Das, 1997. A re-examination of financial analysts’ differential earnings forecast accuracy. Contemporary Accounting Research 14: 1–42. Smith, R., and A. Lucchetti, 2002. How Spitzer pact will affect wall street – Merrill Lynch reforms under $100 million settlement; no full research, banking split. Wall Street Journal May 22, 2002. Stewart, S., 2002. Merrill Canada to pay analysts on merit: other Bay St. firms may follow practice, analysts say. National Post June 8, 2002. Stickel, S. 1990. Predicting individual analyst earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 28: 409-417. Stickel, S. 1992. Reputation and performance among security analysts. The Journal of Finance 47(5): 1811-1836. Subrahmaniyan, N., 2008. Goldman's Murti says oil `likely' to reach $150-$200. Bloomberg.com (May 6, 2008 ). http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayxRKcAZi630&refer=home Truman, B., 1994. Analyst forecasts and herding behavior. The Review of Financial Studies 7, 97- 124. Welch, I., 2000. Herding among security analysts. Journal of Financial Economics 58: 369-396. Womack, K.L., 1996. Do brokerage analysts’ recommendations have investment value? Journal of Finance 51: 137-167. Wylie, S., 2005. Found manager herding: A test of the accuracy of empirical results using UK data. Journal of Business 78 (1): 381-403. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/43067 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 本研究目的旨在探討企業盈餘持續性對於分析師報導行為之影響。盈餘持續性與資訊價值及私有蒐集資訊成本有關,因此應該是分析師注意的焦點。研究結果顯示盈餘持續性與分析師報導人數呈顯著正相關,但與長期預測和股票推薦相對報導人數及頻率呈顯著負相關。另外我們假定盈餘持續性較低的公司,分析師盈餘預測時較需要非公開資訊,因此分析師預測相對較樂觀,認為分析師相信發佈樂觀預測,他們可以從管理者獲得較多的資訊,我們的結果支持此一假設。我們也檢測盈餘持續性是否影響分析師群聚行為,結果指出盈餘持續性與分析師群聚行為呈顯著負相關。另外,我們依照分析師的盈餘預測(推薦)相對時點將分析師分類為預測(推薦)領先型與追隨型分析師,發現領先預測具有持續性,尤其在高持續性公司。領先推薦雖具有持續性,但企業盈餘持續性對此並不具有加乘效果。過去領先預測或過去預測相對較準確的分析師較可有意願藉由先預測以區別出其能力,特別是盈餘持續高的企業。盈餘持續性低的公司,預測較樂觀的分析師較可能成為領先型分析師。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | The purpose of this paper is to examine whether analysts’ coverage decisions would be affected by corporate earnings persistence. The persistence of the earnings series provides information concerning the value of private search activity and thus, should be a focus of analyst attention. Our results show that earnings persistence is significantly positively associated with the level of security analyst coverage while the number of analysts following long-term forecasts and the frequency of long-term forecasts are found to be negatively associated with earnings persistence. We posit that there is higher demand for non-public information for firms which have low earnings persistence than for firms which have high earnings persistence. Analysts make relatively optimistic forecasts when earnings are less persistence, suggesting that analysts believe that by issuing optimistic forecasts, they obtain better information from managers. Our results support this hypothesis. We also find that earnings persistence is significantly negatively associated with analysts herding index.
In addition, we classify analysts as forecast (recommendation) leaders and followers based on the relative timeliness of their earnings forecasts (recommendation). We investigate whether security analysts exhibit persistence in their timely forecast or timely recommendation. We find that the analysts who have led peers in the past are more likely to lead again. Leading likelihood increases with the analyst’s prior accuracy and leader in the previous period, this relationship is more pronounced for firms with high earnings persistence. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-15T01:35:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-98-D91722003-1.pdf: 1345277 bytes, checksum: 07bda8bf65a47fdfda7c59921c24c8b6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 目 錄
口試委員會審定書 謝辭 I 中文摘要 II 英文摘要 III 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 文獻回顧與假說發展 7 第一節 盈餘持續度與分析師報導任務 7 第二節 盈餘持續性與分析師樂觀預測 8 第三節 盈餘持續性與分析師群聚行為 10 第四節 盈餘持續度與個別分析師之行為 11 第三章 變數定義與研究設計 14 第一節 變數定義 14 第二節 資料來源及樣本選擇 24 第三節 研究設計 26 第四章 實證分析結果 38 第一節 I/B/E/S收錄分析師預測之決定因素:資料庫及分析師選樣偏誤分析 38 第二節 盈餘持續性與分析師報導 39 第三節 盈餘持續度與分析師預測行為 44 第四節 企業盈餘持續度與領先預測/推薦持續性 48 第五節 盈餘持續性,分析師類型與從眾預測 57 第六節 盈餘持續性,分析師類型與預測準確性 61 第五章 敏感性分析 66 第一節 分析師預測樂觀特性 66 第二節 盈餘持續性變動與分析師行為變化 68 第三節 非線性與極端值之檢測 71 第四節 變數轉換 72 第六章 結論 73 參考文獻 76 圖 表 目 錄 圖1 分析師的領先/追隨時間計算釋例說明 19 圖2 分析師多次預測時,領先/落後時間釋例說明 22 表1 I/B/E/S資料庫收納預測偏好與分析師實際發佈預測的交互作用組合 26 表2 IBES資料庫收錄分析師預測偏好分析(1997 - 2007 year) 38 表3 樣本年度分配及分析師報導人數 40 表4 盈餘持續度與分析師報導人數及次數 41 表5 盈餘持續性與分析師報導人數之多元迴歸分析 43 表6 盈餘持續性與分析師預測行為 45 表7 利益衝突法規管制實施,盈餘持續性與分析師預測樂觀之關係 48 表8 盈餘持續度高低分組,分析師領先預測(領先推薦)之相關係數 49 表9 企業盈餘持續度與分析師領先預測(推薦)持續度之關係 51 表10 企業盈餘持續度與盈餘預測領先型/追隨型分析師交叉分析 53 表11 盈餘持續度與領先預測的多變量分析 56 表12 企業盈餘持續度,分析師類型與大膽預測的交叉分析 58 表13 領先型/追隨型分析師與大膽預測 59 表14 領先型/追隨型分析師預測準確性 62 表15 領先型與追隨型分析師重分類後之預測準確性比較 64 表16管制產業vs.其他產業;短期預測vs.長期成長預測樂觀預測特性 67 表17 盈餘持續度變動與分析師報導人數及次數變動 70 表18 等級迴歸結果 71 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 企業盈餘持續性與分析師報導 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Earnings Persistence and Analysts Coverage | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 97-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 博士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 王泰昌,李書行,蔡揚宗,周冠男,張元晨,何淮中 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 盈餘持續性,分析師行為,樂觀預測,群聚現象,領先型分析師, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | earnings persistence,analyst behavior,optimism forecasts,herding,lead analyst, | en |
dc.relation.page | 85 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2009-07-17 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 管理學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 會計學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 會計學系 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-98-1.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 1.31 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。